Spring 2026: Why Experts Expect a 14% Surge in Home Sales
Spring 2026 is shaping up to be the busiest housing season in years. Tim Lucas and Craig Berry unpack why experts expect a 14% jump in home sales, how the market is shifting back toward sellers, and what buyers should be doing now to get ahead.
In this episode you’ll learn:
- Why sales may spike: NAR data, rising inventory, and pent-up seller activity point to a major spring rebound.
- Market shift ahead: Today’s neutral market is expected to swing back toward seller advantage by March 2026.
- Inventory bright spot: Analysts predict the best selection in two years, including long-delayed listings from older homeowners.
- Rate expectations: Forecasts range from high-5% averages (Fannie Mae) to ~6.4% (MBA), suggesting no big drops—just stability.
- Who’s best positioned to buy: Steady income, DTI under 50%, 3.5%+ down, and 700+ credit give buyers the strongest footing.
- Winning strategies:
- The “two-step rate journey”—buy based on realistic rates, refinance only if it makes sense later.
- Tap builder incentives—66% are offering rate buydowns and closing-cost help.
- Target off-market sellers and distressed or long-vacant inventory.
- Explore portfolio loans for more flexible underwriting.
