Mortgage Research Network Podcast

Welcome to the Mortgage Research Network Podcast. We bring you the latest mortgage and real estate news 3 times a week. The audio is AI generated, but content is fact-checked by me, Tim Lucas, editor of MortgageResearch.com and a former mortgage professional. And with me is Craig Berry, a mortgage originator with 25 years experience. Craig, housing costs in America have caused 13 million fewer births over the last 30 years according to a new study from the University of Toronto. That's about the entire population of Pennsylvania.

That's such a striking number. How did researchers even figure that out?

Well, the study tracked housing costs and fertility rates from 1990 to 2020. The economist behind it, Benjamin Couillard, found that housing expenses account for more than half of America's declining birth rate during that period.

So we're talking about a direct cause-and-effect relationship here?

Exactly. And here's what makes this so interesting. From 1990 to 2020, rents increased by 149% nationally, while overall inflation was 103%. That massive gap has fundamentally changed how people plan their families. The fertility rate has dropped to just 1.6 children per woman, well below the 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population.

Hmm... that really puts things in perspective. I mean, we're essentially watching housing costs reshape our entire society.

And what's particularly striking is how this affects larger families. The study found that families wanting multiple children are especially sensitive to housing costs. So it's not just about couples choosing between having kids or not. It's about families having one child when they wanted three, or two when they wanted four.

You know what makes this even more concerning? The CDC just reported another 3% decrease in fertility rates this year, hitting a historic low.

Right. If it weren't for immigration, we'd be facing some serious economic challenges. We're talking about a potentially shrinking workforce, reduced productivity, declining GDP, all stemming from these housing cost increases.

That makes me wonder about the solutions being proposed. What are policymakers considering?

Well, there are several fascinating approaches being discussed. Economist Jake Krimmel suggests we need to focus specifically on building larger housing units that can accommodate growing families. And then there's this push to reform zoning laws to allow more affordable housing options in areas where they're currently banned.

Though it seems like we're still just scratching the surface of what needs to be done.

You're right. And here's what's really crucial to understand. Zillow just reported that America's housing shortage has hit an all-time high of 4.7 million units. That's not just a number. That's millions of families having to make difficult choices about their futures.

So what you're saying is that this isn't just about housing anymore. It's really about the future of our society.

Exactly. Think about the ripple effects. Fewer children today means fewer workers tomorrow, fewer people paying into Social Security, fewer people starting new businesses. And what's fascinating is how this study has finally given us hard evidence for something people have suspected for years.

That certainly changes how we should think about local housing policies.

It really does. What might seem like a simple zoning decision in your neighborhood could actually be affecting future birth rates, economic growth, and social stability. And that's why this research is so important. It helps us see these connections we've been missing.

Looking ahead, what do you think it will take to actually address this effectively?

Well, I think we need a fundamental shift in how we approach housing policy. We need to start viewing housing as essential infrastructure, not just as a market commodity. Because when we make housing unaffordable, we're not just affecting individual families. We're literally shaping the demographic future of our country.

That's quite a paradigm shift from our traditional approach.

And that's exactly what makes this study so powerful. It gives us concrete evidence of something we've intuitively known but couldn't prove. The real question now is whether we'll use this information to make meaningful changes before we lose another 13 million potential Americans to the housing crisis.

That's about all the time we have for this topic, but we go into even more detail on the site. For more, search birth rate at Mortgage research.com. We'll see you next time on the Mortgage Research Network Podcast.