2026 Mortgage Rates: Stability Ahead, Not Big Drops
After a roller-coaster 2025, experts say 2026 mortgage rates will hover near today’s levels—around 6.1% to 6.4% depending on the agency. Tim Lucas and Craig Berry break down why major rate swings aren’t expected and what buyers should focus on instead.
In this episode you’ll learn:
- The forecast: Fannie Mae expects just under 6%, NAR sees 6.1%, and MBA calls for 6.4%—averaging to about 6.2%.
- Why the Fed isn’t the driver: Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury, not Fed rate cuts or hikes.
- Expert caution: With geopolitical shifts and economic uncertainty, analysts say there’s more risk of rates rising than falling.
- Buyer strategy: Focus on price, not the perfect rate—because you can refinance later. Don’t let small payment changes overshadow bigger financial priorities.
- Creative options: 2-1 buydowns, improving FHA approvals, and non-QM loans give buyers more flexibility than they realize.
