Will Home Sales Rebound in 2026? A Look at a Bold Housing Forecast
Home sales have plunged since their pandemic peak—but a new forecast suggests a sharp rebound could be closer than many expect. As mortgage rates eased from recent highs and inventory pressures slowly shift, Tim Lucas and Craig Berry break down a bold prediction that home sales could jump significantly in 2026, what’s been holding the market back, and what might finally unlock buyer and seller activity again.
In this episode you’ll learn:
- How far home sales have fallen: Annual U.S. home sales dropped from 6.12 million in 2021 to about 4 million by 2025.
- Who’s predicting a rebound: Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, forecasts a 14% year-over-year increase in home sales in 2026.
- Why Yun isn’t calling this radical: Historically, housing markets often see double-digit rebounds after prolonged downturns.
- How interest rates froze the market: Mortgage rates rising from under 3% to nearly 8% sidelined buyers and discouraged sellers.
- The lock-in effect: Homeowners with ultra-low pandemic-era mortgages are reluctant to sell and take on higher rates.
- The capital gains tax factor: Exemptions set in 1997 may now be discouraging long-time owners from selling.
- Why this isn’t 2008: Distressed sales make up only about 2% of transactions today, signaling stronger fundamentals.
